Brexit bomb

10 December 2017

Irish border will explode

By: Karsten Riise

The issue of the Irish border will explode in the Brexit process. The question is only how the border-issue will explode. The Republic of Ireland must unbendingly leverage her key-role to peace.


Border issue will go up again

In the Brexit talks between London and Brussels, the issue of the Irish border was not solved. The border issue was simply sidestepped, fudged, swept under the rug – kicked down the road.

The Irish border issue will resurface, in an extremely inconvenient way and moment.


Impossible UK commitments

The UK Prime Minister Ms. May has committed herself to the impossible:

1. “no hard border” in Ireland,
2. “same regulatory regime” on both sides of the Irish border,
   
   where the side of the Republic of Ireland continues in the EU Single Market and Customs Union,
3. “same regulatory regime” between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK,
   
   where Ms. May has promised to exit the EU Single Market and Customs Union.

This just does not hold.

Ms. May knows it. Brussels knows it, but has accepted it, to get on with business. The Republic of Ireland also knows it, and has been pressed by the other parties not to stall the negotiations.

As Ms. May will have to break one (or more) of her promises – better for peace, if Ms. May is pressed not to break promises no. 1 & 2  above.


Bloody explosion is about to happen

The Irish border issue is now at risk of “sleeping”, until the UK’s future relationship with the EU has been negotiated in the now upcoming second stage of the Brexit negotiations.

It is most likely, that the UK will get a “transition” period of two years – which really is nothing else than Brexit speak for a continued UK membership on “Norwegian” terms: Continued full EU membership, just without UK voting rights. During such a “transition” period, the soft Irish border can continue to work as until now – troubles are bound to come after that.

Only after a “transition” period ends in 2021 comes the hard point: The UK will leave the EU, probably with not much more than a limited trade agreement like the Canadian CETA-agreement. No later than in 2021, the Irish border issue is about to explode on the ground.

Explosion on the ground is to be taken literally here. The last Irish war lasted for 30 years. It was one of Europe’s deepest bloody conflicts, and the soft Irish border between the two parts of Ireland is a corner-stone of the peace-deal. If the Irish border issue is allowed to explode on the ground again in 2021, we can have a new real Irish war, with bombs in Belfast and London, shootings, armored cars in the streets - and bloody victims.


Let issue explode at the table – not the ground

The Irish border issue WILL explode. The question is how.

It is important, that the coming explosion of the Irish border issue happens without bloodshed already at the negotiating table, and not with physical victims on the ground in 2021. Sadly, the prospect of an Irish war in 2021 may be too remote for Ms. May and Brussels, that they can be expected to feel enough pressed to take sufficiently far-reaching steps.

The Democratic Unionist Party DUP, of Ireland has the same interests in peace in Ireland, and in a continued connection with the EU (Northern Ireland voted Remain to the EU). But the DUP, however, legitimately has a priority of the cultural connection of their 400 year old Irish constituency with Britain. Scotland has been sidelined, and English Brexiteers will just wash their hands.

The ultimate responsibility, that the coming Irish border explosion happens bloodlessly already at the table, and not later with physical casualties, therefore falls upon the Republic of Ireland.

In 2018, the content of the future UK arrangement with the EU must be finalized to give room for a final 6 months EU-member state approval procedure. In the final approval procedure, the remaining 27 EU members must reach a unanimous agreement on the UKs future relationship with the EU. No future UK-deal without the Republic of Ireland.

The Republic of Ireland has a veto-right – and must dare the political risk to make maximum use of it.

Playing out its veto, the Republic of Ireland must not be afraid to “explode” and completely demolish the Brexit negotiations in the UK’s future with the EU.

Maybe airlines to London will be stopped, and banks flee the UK. So be it. Ireland must be unafraid of being pressured, and threatened to be frozen-out by the rest of the EU, or even become object of hate by the UK-Brexiteers.  The Republic of Ireland should also not accept to be “bribed” to give in, with minor advantages offered by the UK and the EU.

The Republic of Ireland must with all heart and spirit be prepared to act on the aim, that the Irish border issue must either be solved completely and for real at the table in 2018 – or that the UK leaves the EU in 2019 with NO future deal.

Such a stubborn stance by a smaller EU member may earn the Republic of Ireland few friends now – but the Republic of Ireland has overwhelming legitimate reasons to be so tough.


Signal open toughness all the way

For the Brexit negotiation not to run down the wrong track during the next 9 months, it is important that the Republic of Ireland sends sufficiently tough signals - now.

Ireland must signal the toughness, if needed, to let the border issue explode and break UK’s new deal with all the EU, even in the last minute at the table, no matter the cost.

To avoid worse explosion on the ground later - Ireland must timely and unbendingly leverage its key-role. How can the Republic of Ireland send a strong-enough signal?

Only one way: The Republic of Ireland must create even more crisis at the table – better safe now, than sorry later - to demonstrate that the Republic of Ireland seriously will take no more fudge all the way to the end.



Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor

CHANGE NEWS &
CHANGE MANAGEMENT

She took the bullet

15 November 2017

UK minister Piti Pratel took the bullet for her boss

By: Karsten Riise

With much media attention, UK “development” minister Ms. Piti Pratel had to resign from the UK government, after her unofficial meetings with the Israeli Prime Minister and other high-ranking Israelis, during her “vacation” in Israel.


The only logical explanation

The word “development minister” had to be put into quotation marks in the case of former UK minister Piti Pratel.

Because Piti Pratel, sometimes acting abroad in tandem with Exchequer Philip Hammond, was one of the UK’s two ablest builders of UK trade relations.

In their ability and energy to “open doors” for UK trade, the couple Piti and Philip by far surpassed the UK official trade minister. In doing so, Piti and Philip have generally operated a bit “below the radar” of media. Their (official) travels were of course routinely reported in media, but trade often being the real purpose of their travels, was under-reported.
Brexit is at risk of developing into a catastrophe for the UK.

In trade, the UK will have to “do with whomever” in “whatever way” – including with Israel. And on Israel’s terms. In trade, the UK may need Israel more than the other way around. This must be the judgment of the UK government.

It is simply not believable, that Piti Pratel should have made her “holiday-mission” to Israel so extremely trade-intensive and at such high diplomatic levels, without full knowledge, approval and direct support from her Prime Minister.

Israel and her activities are, as everybody knows, a very divisive issue in much of the world, including the UK.

The task of Piti Pratel to advance UK trade interests in Israel in this rather unorthodox way was, of course, to keep everything unknown and officially “deniable”.
With 99.9% probability, everything which Piti Pratel did on her “holiday-trade-mission” to Israel has been fully organized and approved by Prime Minister May as well as all the inner circle of the UK government.
In withdrawing herself after this story came up, Piti Pratel simply “took the media-bullet” for her boss, Prime Minister Theresa May. 

Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor


CHANGE NEWS &
CHANGE MANAGEMENT