This very frank (and perhaps less diplomatic) analysis, I wrote 3 years before England decided to leave the EU - it still holds.
29 January 2013
Goodbye, England !
By: Karsten Riise
England always sabotaged a united Europe
For nearly 500 years, a primary objective of English foreign policy has always been to oppose all tendencies of continental Europe to become one power(1). The political unification of Europe has always been something, England abhorred. Strongest reason the English officially participate in EU is
to obfuscate Europe’s unity from within.
England alone sinks in the waves
For centuries, England could always support the second powers in Europe to bring down the primary
power on the continent: Spain, France, Germany, or Russia. But today the primary power in Europe
is a democratic Union, and if England leaves that Union, England will stand utterly alone – a small
country of 60 million people (Vietnam has 90 mio and Turkey has 75 mio). Maybe Scotland in its own referendum leaves England and stays in Europe. England will commercially and politically be deeply dependent upon and surrounded by the European Union.
The size of the English economy is 3.5% of the world - slightly less than Brazil(2). Already in 4 years, IMF projects that Brazil will command 12% more of world spending-power than England(3).
Without the dynamic growth, the natural resources and cheap labor-advantages of Brazil, England sinks behind Brazil. By itself, England is a rim-country. In contrast, Brazil grows as the lead nation of
MERCOSUR, the successful free-market center of a South American power-house which holds a
steady 6% of the world economy(4).
It is more than 60 years ago, since England ruled any waves around its island. Without massive
American help, German U-boats would have isolated import-dependent England under World War II.
Ever since, the English Navy is becoming less and less “royal”. Today, England’s two former aircraft
carriers are too old to carry anything else but a bunch of helicopters, and England must cost-cut the
nuclear submarines(5), that once killed the Argentine ship “Belgrano” with 1,095 seamen, while it was outside of the warzone of the Malvinas war (“Falklands”). The sea-lanes of England, a renegade
province of Europe, are internal waters of Europe’s coast-cities in Ireland, continental Europe’s westcoast, and Scotland(6).
Naval strength is very much a function of industrial capacity(7). That is why England in two world
wars could not alone compete with Germany, and was later totally outrun by the US Navy and Soviet
Navy. Without England, the European State will still command 22% of world purchase-power – six
times more strength to upkeep a navy than England(8). The military ship-building capacity of China is of course on an even much higher scale.
Companionless, outside of Europe, England will be a ghostly ex-colonial shadow - neither respected,
nor highly loved by the rising non-western world-majority. The return of Hong Kong to China was an
omen for England’s future. With a rusting navy England will lose the odd collection of islands and
chunks of land, its forefathers hoarded up for generations: The Malvinas ("Falklands") to Argentina, Gibraltar to Europe, Cyprus bases to Turkey, Antarctica and Pitcairn to China (why not?). The list is up for grabs.
Left alone, England will suffer hard on the 50% of its economy that depends on export to Europe, and
England must from an unfavorable bargaining-position renegotiate bilateral trade-agreements with
much of the rest of the world(9). That will be damaging for England. The “missing” monetary EU-contribution from England(10) will for Europe just be a sound investment into a more homogeneous political foundation for European Unity, and a chance for Europe to streamline its costly and market-distorting protectionist agricultural policies.
Win-win for Europe - and lose-lose for England.
England cannot even grow by increasing its dependency as unofficial protectorate of the USA, because the once almighty American Empire is drowning faster than the English Empire did. The
masquerade called “British Commonwealth of Nations” is no factor to waste words on.
European state-building stronger
The real Europe continues its scramble for Statehood, competing with East Asia (centered on China) to become the strongest region in the new world of regions, which is the post-American reality.
Due to economic troubles, South Europe and Ireland will more and more fall into a legal, financial,
political (and soon military) European state-structure with France and Germany. Leading circles in
the Benelux countries are positive to European state-development. The best option of Eastern Europe
will be to follow. European Statehood is the alternative to disintegration and conflict in Europe.
Denmark, the mini camp-follower, can sing, cry or die -- it does not matter. If Denmark vagabonds
with England, Europe will after a few days forget that Denmark even was a member. Who misses
Greenland in Europe? No-one.
Great European leaders see a grand opportunity that England “threatens” to pack and go. Everybody
will say nein-non to concessions to England. Continental Europe is weary of the negative attractiveness England offers. Europe will even cut away the ludicrous aristocratic privileges England
tricked by Margaret Thatcher. England will be served two harsh options: Bow humbly and become
loyal Europeans. Or leave the club – and pay each time England is permitted to the restaurant.
Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor
CHANGE NEWS &
CHANGE MANAGEMENT
Notes:
(1) To be exact, the English policy of playing European powers against each other to divide them has
been an English power-doctrine since the days of Queen Elizabeth I, who reigned 1558-1603. Read
Chapter 1 of “The Rise and Fall Of British Naval Mastery” by Paul M. Kennedy (1982).
(2) Year 2011, on data from The International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook database,
October 2012.
(3) Share of World Purchase Power Parity (PPP) – IMF projection for year 2017, on data from The
International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook database, October 2012.
(4) Year 2011, on data from The International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook database,
October 2012.
(5) Many reports. Read for example “UK and France to share aircraft carriers” The Sun 20100831,
“Britain and France will share aircraft carrier to combat defense cuts “The Mail-Online 20110604, and “Britain may be left without and aircraft carrier all year round” The Sun 20120321.
(6) Study the map. Ocean-access of the all major English ports goes through the Celtic Sea, the
English Channel, or the North Sea – all sovereignty of the emerging European Super-State from the
coast of Ireland and continental Europe. If Scotland leaves England and enters Europe, then England
will be utterly surrounded with Edinburgh added as a continental-European navy-base.
(7) Read Paul M. Kennedy “The Rise and Fall of British Naval Mastery” (1982) – especially the
introductory Chapter.
(8) Year 2011, on data from The International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook database,
October 2012.
(9) The Economist 8-14 Dec. 2012 – Leader article.
(10) It is a false image of England as always being a net-contributor to the European budget. Actually, England has in the years 2000-2010 in some years been a net-receiver of EU funds – ref. Danish Parliament source “EU-oplysningen”.
